Saturday, 16. January 2010
by H.B. Baumgardner
I was 3-1 last week, and I looked pretty damn intelligent in doing so. The Ravens ran all over the Patriots, as I predicted an outright win, even going so far as to say the Patriots would be fine with Edelman (who scored twice).
Correct Pick #1
Although I said Thomas Jones would run all over the Bengals en route to a win, it was Shone Green instead. Regardless, the Jets ran all over Cincinnati, Mark Sanchez thew the ball 15 times (correct again, H.B. !) and they won outright.
Correct Pick #2
Dallas got a shit-ton of pressure on McNabb, the Eagles looked like my ass, and the Cowboys generally cruised to victory over an as-expected egg from Philly.
Correct Pick #3
Well, I don’t think anyone predicted what we saw as the finale on sunday. When the Packers were down 31-10 with 11 minutes left in the 3rd, I thought that was going to be my one major mistake. But, although I was wrong in predicting the outcome with a Packers win, Aaron Rodgers DID torch the Cardinals. However, he missed a wide-open Greg Jennings that would have been the OT win. Do you know that after the Packers were down 31-10 they scored a touchdown on their next FIVE possessions? That can’t happen in Madden!
Kind of right pick?
I’m saying 3.5-.5, and this is my blog post, so you’re giving it to me.
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Let’s get to today. As always, home team in CAPS, pick in bold.
New Orleans-Arizona
The Saints haven’t look good in a number of weeks, and Arizona could be mentally drained from the aforementioned shootout with Green Bay, but this is for sure: The Cardinals passing game is firing on all cylinders. Can New Orleans get their shit straight? Probably. Were not going to see any running in this game, as Arizona simply can’t run, and New Orleans just signed Deuce McAllister (I’m serious). But here is the thing: They Cardinals SHOULD be running, Beanie Wells needs to carry the ball a lot. From week 10 on Mr. Wells has a 7.1% DVOA, compared to Tim Hightower’s -2.9%. The Saints have the 29th ranked rushing defense on the league. Let’s see what Ken Whisenhunt does here.
The Saints started the season 13-0 because they aired it out early, forced teams to stop running the ball, and ran the clock out. Here’s the problem with that against Arizona: They can toss that fucking ball all over the place.
Althought I will not be surprised AT ALL in what happens in this game (Unless it’s 14-10, hey..saturday playoff games are always whacky) I have to like the Cards getting points, and at a PLUS 260 moneyline I’m putting money on them to win outright.
NEW ORLEANS v. Arizona (+7)
Dallas-Minnesota
God damn if this isn’t not only the best game of the week, but the shittastic “who the fuck do I root for” game. You gotta lay money one way or the other, or all game you’re going to say “fucking Wade Phillips” “fuck Jerry Jones” “Tony Romo can suck my ass” or any variation of Brett Favre comments.
There is no way Minnesota runs the ball in this for two reason: They stopped running with Adrian Peterson, because then Brett gets unhappy.** But, that doesn’t really matter, because Dallas’ rushing defense has a -8.1% DVOA. Do you know what Dallas’ rushing DVOA is on offense? 16.4%, that’s 3rd in the league. Translation: The Cowboys dominate the line on both sides of the ball.
In interesting point of fact from Aaron Schatz at footballoutsiders dot com:
“Another thing to expect from this game is a lot of flags. Dallas ranked sixth this year in total penalties, including those declined or offsetting. Minnesota ranked seventh.”
I always assumed that penalized teams meant bad coaching, so I guess these 2 teams show I might be right? I need more information on this.
I’m taking Dallas with the points, but this game is a coin-flip.
MINNESOTA v. Dallas (-3)
** This is what I hate about the media. Brett Favre cries about whatever he wants, and CHANGES the offensive play calling on Brad Childress, but it’s because “he’s a gamer! He’s having fun out there!”. That’s horseshit. Peyton Manning does it, and he’s a genius. But, if Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers pull some shit like that, it’s because they’re “arrogant” and “they’re punks”.